Kyren Williams – RB – Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams was the definition of a league winning pickup last season as he finished as the RB5 with a price tag of just the majority of your FAAB or priority on the wire. When he was on the field he was one of the most reliable and high ceiling RBs available. He even ran through the playoffs with PPR scores of 23.5, 16.4, and 30.1 in weeks 15, 16, and 17.
So why am I scared? Well first off is the price tag of at least a second round pick and possibly pushing into the first round when home leagues start to draft. That is a HUGE jump in price and while he proved all season long he could put up the points in this scheme, he also proved that at 5’9″ sub 200lbs he couldn’t stay on the field.
Williams is TINY for an NFL RB to be getting a 250+ carry workload which he will need to pay off this price. Williams is only 4 lbs heavier than Darren Sproles was. Sproles played 14 years in the NFL, but never carried the ball over 100 times in a season and only had 732 carries in his entire career. If Williams gets 250 carries next season that will be more carries than Sproles had in 5 YEARS with the Chargers. It’s possible to play long term with high usage at that size, but the only example of it is Ray Rice and to my eye Ray Rice looked a whole lot bigger out there 10 years ago than Kyren does today. Kyler Murray is listed at 5’10 207 lbs (which no one believes) but that’s an inch taller and 10 lbs more than Kyren is listed at and Kyler looks comically small at times on the field.
Williams could absolutely be great this year, but like De’Von Achane (who is at least a little cheaper) he is the smallest guy out there and I am gonna cringe all year watching them both get hit after they both missed significant time due to injury a year ago.
Josh Jacobs – RB – Green Bay Packers
The Raiders moved on from Josh Jacobs and have passed the backfield off to Zamir White.
That’s all I need to know to be scared off drafting Jacobs as a 3rd round pick. The Raiders have NO ONE to run the ball, almost $35 million in salary cap room, and they let Jacobs go. This is either gross mis-mangement of the roster (which is possible), a personal vendetta against Jacobs (also possible), or they know he has lost a step and wanted to get cheaper at the position and feel they can get similar production from Zamir White. (They have Davante Adams still on this roster, but felt the need to move on from Jacobs.)
No matter the reason Josh Jacobs is going to be sharing a workload with AJ Dillon in Green Bay and after a 233/805/6 season for the Raiders I am going to let someone else gamble on Jacobs this season.
Tee Higgins – WR – Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins is a fine player and certainly up there as one of the better second options in the league, but I think his price is a little inflated for the opportunity he brings because there is so much talk about his contract.
Over the last 4 seasons with the Bengals he has never topped 75 receptions, 1,100 yards, or 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is not higher than in recent years and even accounting for his injuries limiting him to just 10 games his 17 game pace for last season was still only 60 receptions for 929 yards and 7 touchdowns which is fine, but if he misses time or Quarterback Joe Burrow misses time again this season like they both did in 2023 it’s going to be disappointing.
Zack Moss – RB – Cincinnati Benngals
Speaking of the Bengals, did you remember they signed Zack Moss to be their starting RB with Joe Mixon now a Houston Texan? Sure, Moss was a revelation for the Colts for a few weeks during the absence of Jonathan Taylor. However, he fell OFF A CLIFF after his monster 4 game stretch. He went 89 carries for 445 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 8 receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown in those 4 games. Jonathan Taylor returned for 6 games before missing 3 more. In those 3 games he was a miserable 36 carries for 92 yards no rushing touchdowns and 9 receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Moss is pretty cheap in drafts right now and probably won’t go too high in industry drafts, but in home leagues and as a starting RB he will climb up boards. I don’t mind stashing Moss on my bench in the 7th round, but if you got WR/TE/QB early in the draft and find yourself with Moss starting Week 1 I would be very concerned about his long term viability to hold up that spot.
Malik Nabers -WR – New York Giants
and
Marvin Harrison JR – WR – Arizona Cardinals
If you are in a dynasty or keeper league then by all means pull the trigger on either of these exciting rookies, but in redraft leagues I am extremely hesitant to draft either one at their current price. Malik Nabers is expensive as the WR19 which turns into like a mid round 4 pick in PPR drafts which is concerning for a rookie on what looks like is going to be an exceptionally bad team with a QB whose ceiling is probably capped at 3,300 passing yards.
Marvin Harrison Jr‘s price is through the roof already and it’s July. Harrison is WR9 in ADP. 9! Thats an early round 2 pick. Everyone needs to take a deep breathe and relax. Do not build your team around a rookie on a bad team with a quarterback who has missed time the last three seasons due to injury. To pay off this price you would need Quarterback Kyler Murray to play all season and get prime DeAndre Hopkins‘ numbers from Harrison (115/1,407/6). Could it happen? Sure, but it’s a scary proposition to take someone this high who has yet to play a down in the NFL.