Every year there are a handful of guys who see very out of place on the draft board. Sometimes it is due to hype trains or podcasts really hyping someone up. Sometime it’s just the board having bare spots. This year I think the main reason is an over abundance of optimism. So let’s break down 5 guys who you got to be out of your mind to take where they are going in drafts. For this we are going to use a combination of ADP and the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator.
1. Rhamondre Stevenson – RB – New England Patriots
I understand the reason for optimism and that there is a lot to be excited about with both the skillset and the situation. Damien Harris is gone which frees up a lot of goal line opportunities and Stevenson is an excellent pass catcher who brought in 69 receptions in 2022. However, Stevenson is going as high as the back half of the first round to the early second round. You got to be out of our mind to be grabbing a Patriots’ running back that high. To pay off that price he is going to need to see huge consistent usage on what is going to be a horrific offense. Last season he had two monster games going 25/161/0 against Detroit and 19/172/1 against the Las Vegas Raiders, but the concern there is that the Lions were the second worst run defense in the league and the Raiders were in the bottom half of the league as well. The 2022 Lions gave up over 100 yards on the ground 13 times last season and games of 95 and 96 yards.
If Stevenson were going in the third round I would be all about him, but the risk of still splitting carries with a lesser back, how bad this offense is going to be, and the players you could take instead like Josh Jacobs, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nick Chubb, or even a guy like Jonathan Taylor I am not willing to risk it all on Stevenson.
2. T.J. Hockenson – TE – Minnesota Vikings
I have covered Hockenson before as to why he needs to drop down the board, but if you are doing drafts right now you can see him come off the board as early as the top of the third round. That’s crazy. There are so many good players still around in that area of the draft that you cannot be risking it on Hockenson. Yes, he is a solid talent at the position and he is going to have week winning upside, but Jefferson and Addison are going to command over 300 targets this season which is going to leave very little for Hockenson to be able to pay off that price. In comparison, Mark Andrews went just two picks prior in my most recent Draft Wizard draft. Andrews is going to be the top target from Lamar Jackson and be absolutely drenched in targets.
I will defend drafting Kyle Pitts in the 2022 third round to this day because he had the talent, opportunity, and 2021 stats to back up that ceiling pick and if it had worked it would have been league winning. Hockenson has the chance to finish as the TE3, but that is a low ceiling (last year he finished as the TE4). Look elsewhere for your tight end this season.
3. Dalvin Cook – RB – Free Agent
This goes for everyone in this position. DO NOT DRAFT PLAYERS WHO DON’T HAVE A TEAM! This especially goes for players who are going in the 7th round like Cook currently is. Use your picks on players who are guaranteed a roster spot right now. Cook could latch onto a team and get buried into a rbbc and destroy any value you thought you were getting by speculating. For first hand evidence of how dangerous this can be: DeAndre Hopkins was going as a 5th round pick as a FA and then decided to sign with the worst possible team in the Tennessee Titans which is the graveyard of Hall of Fame wide receivers in recent years. Let Cook find a home before you draft him or if you want to speculate he should be the last player you draft before Kicker and D/ST.
4. Deebo Samuel – WR – San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel is one of the most talented and unique players in the NFL, but this season he is entering the season with Christian McCaffrey already on the roster and a very unstable QB situation. McCaffrey is going to dominate the rushing attempts and remove that aspect from Samuel’s game. The quarterback situation is going to lower his ceiling at WR along with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle pulling tons of targets. Samuel is going too high because of his name value which doesn’t accurately reflect his ceiling. Right now you are going to have to spend probably a fourth round pick on him which is ahead of guys like James Conner, Joe Burrow, Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy, and Alexander Mattison. All of those guys are in for more touches this season and have a more solid floor than Samuel who has the talent of a monster season but his opportunities are going to make it extremely difficult especially with a probable revolving door at quarterback.
5. Jahmyr Gibbs – RB – Detroit Lions
The Lions were so excited to take Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the draft.
Now fantasy players are probably equally as excited about drafting him to their teams. I have some pretty big concerns about his price. Right now he is going to cost a high third round pick and that is going to go even higher as the general public really get into their drafts and they know Gibbs went 12th overall. Lots of people have quickly forgotten that the Gibbs pick was a huge shock. Not only just going to the Lions, but going in the first round at all. Some of that is position scarcity, it is very easy to find a productive running back later in the draft if you just need a guy. But also because D’Andre Swift was still on this roster and so was David Montgomery. Finally, Gibbs is a big name because of his time at Alabama and draft stock, but he is not a big guy. He measured at the combine at 5’9″ and 199 lbs.
For reference:
D’Andre Swift: 5’9″ 211 lbs
Ray Rice: 5’9″ 195 lbs
Doug Martin: 5’9″ 210 lbs
Maurice Jones-Drew: 5’7″ 210 lbs
Darren Sproles: 5’6″ 190 lbs
Now, you might be thinking to yourself; “Well maybe he dropped weight to run faster at the combine”, but you would be wrong. The Alabama roster has him listed at 200 lbs. Gibbs is small and would need to be an extreme outlier to be able to stand up to bell-cow work. I don’t think the Lions are going to attempt to use him as a bell-cow though because of the presence of David Montgomery, but his draft cost of a third round pick in the neighborhood of Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Kenneth Walker indicate to me that people are expecting a much larger workout that I think we see or we should be expecting based on his size. His draft comp on NFL.com is Alvin Kamara which would be nice if that’s what he turns out to be, but Kamara is taller and 15 lbs heavier. If Gibbs drops a round to account for his probable workload then I am on board with the risk, but you should be going after carries that high in the draft not hope.