There are a number of players every year who scare the heck out of me to draft. This doesn’t mean I am not willing to draft them, but every time before clicking that draft button I am worried as can be about it turning out okay.
Kyren Williams – RB – Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams was a monster last season as he led many of those who rostered him to fantasy championships including a 3 touchdown performance in championship week. So why am I scared to draft him this season?
Well, a few reasons actually. First is that he is undersized. At just 5’9″ 194 lbs (or 204 depending on where you are looking, but I am extremely wary of that number just looking at him) he is small for a NFL RB which is not the end all be all. De’Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs are also both going in the same tier and are roughly the same size. Take note though that all three of them missed time last season due to injury.
Second, he doesn’t have high pedigree. He was drafted in the fifth round and while guys can overcome this, there are not a lot of RBs who are able to sustain production with low draft capital invested in them. Go down the list of the top RBs in fantasy drafts right now and the only guys taken outside the top 3 rounds of the NFL draft in the top 22 of fantasy ADP right now are Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Aaron Jones. It’s possible, but it’s uncommon.
Finally, the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum was not drafted that high to not play a significant part of an offense that has Super Bowl aspirations. You can succeed in a committee and still pay off this draft price, just ask Jahmyr Gibbs or De’Von Achane, but it takes insane efficiency and/or receptions. Kyren can catch the ball, but it’s nowhere near the same level as Gibbs who caught 52 balls on a total of 596 offensive snaps while Kyren caught 32 on 678 snaps.
Speaking of snaps, Kyren played on 82% of them. There’s no chance he repeats that with Corum on this roster. Kyren Williams could pay off his fantasy draft price if he were given the reigns to this backfield, but I just don’t see that happening and with a fully healthy Cooper Kupp, a new WR1 in Puka Nacua, and backfield competition (I actually don’t think it’s a competition so much as a complementary role, but carries and snaps will be ceded) in Corum I think it’s a very difficult path.
Every 49er (Except CMC)
The 49ers are great. That offense is so fun to watch and a nightmare for defenses to plan for because if you choose one weapon to stop then they just destroy you with someone else. Stop CMC and the run? Get thrown all over with Deebo and Aiyuk. Shut down the wide receivers? Kittle will feast.
Deebo Samuel is an unique offensive weapon who has been a real roller coaster in fantasy through his career so far. He has finished as the WR26, 98, 2, 33, and 7 last season. So if the trend continues he should end up as a more middling WR. He had “just” 1,117 scrimmage yards last season and 12 scores. In his 5 seasons his total touchdown number has been 6, 1, 14, 5, 12. If that number regresses down and he doesn’t increase yardage significantly, then he won’t come close to paying off his current draft price of the WR13 (half point PPR). I think Deebo is being taken at his absolute ceiling and this price needs to get pushed down with a resolution to the Brandon Aiyuk situation which is almost certainly helping to inflate Deebo’s price.
Speaking of Brandon Aiyuk, he is just 2 spots down the list at WR15 in ADP. Aiyuk is wanting a new contract and the 49ers are unwilling so far to give it to him or trade him and the price is only going up as other WRs get extensions themselves. He is an elite weapon in this offense, but there’s a real threat that he holds out or actually gets traded out of town and ends up somewhere with a QB unable to take advantage of his talent and WR15 is just out of reach. If Aiyuk’s situation gets settled then this pick becomes a lot less scary and a lot more safe, but drafts are coming and this situation is still going.
George Kittle is a very simple case. He has game breaking week winning ability, but we don’t often get to see it show up on the stat sheet. In 2023 he finished as the TE1 three times, but he also finished 20th or worse seven times. His price is almost to the point where the gamble on week winning upside is baked into the price, but in many home leagues his price is inflated beyond that to the point where you would like to have a lot more consistency.
Brock Purdy has climbed all the way up to QB11 in drafts after a QB6 finish last season. The weapons he has around him because of how cheap his contract is are perhaps the best group top to bottom in the league (though you could argue Lions or Eagles as well). He should be a safe option at the position, but he lacks any sort of rushing upside and if you go look at how many pass attempts he had in comparison to the QBs that finished around him it’s a little concerning if his efficiency drops.
QB5 – Jordan Love – 579 pass attempts
QB6 – Brock Purdy – 444
QB7 – Jared Goff – 605
QB8 – Patrick Mahomes – 597
QB9 – CJ Stroud – 499
QB10 – Baker Mayfield – 566
QB11 – Tua Tagovailoa – 560
QB12 – Trevor Lawerence – 564
QB13 – Sam Howell – 612
QB14 – Russell Wilson – 447
QB15 – Matt Stafford – 521
QB16 – Derek Carr – 548
QB17 – Justin Herbert – 456
QB18 – Justin Fields – 370
Wow that took a long time to get to someone who had less attempts, but if you account for Fields rushing ability then you have Purdy at 483 total opportunities and Fields at 494 opportunities.
To get to a QB with less total opportunities than Purdy last season you have to go all the way to QB22 Desmond Ridder. Purdy had a very efficient season. His TD% (touchdown/pass attempts) of 7% is almost a full point higher than 2nd place Dak Prescott and to drop another percentage point you get to QB10. Purdy has a nice ceiling, but it takes a lot for things to fall to it, there is some concern baked into his draft value at QB11, but I am wary of drafting into a system QB (Yeah, I said it, come at me).
De’Von Achane – RB – Miami Dolphins
The problem with drafting of De’Von Achane is that the name and last year is blinding people to the dangers of Achane. The biggest issue is obviously his size. He is listed at 5’9″ 188 lbs which is tiny for an every down back, but more reasonable as part of a running back committee. Speaking of which is the committee approach the Dolphins are taking to the position which could see more involvement from rookie Jaylen Wright.
Now, Achane can win weeks without needing a large carry load. He never surpassed 20 touches in a game last season and dropped rushing totals or 203, 101, 151, and 147. He is perhaps the most dangerous player outside of the first round and will be fun to have in your lineup all season, but his size scares the heck out of me.
He was AWESOME last year, but he started the season hurt and then got hurt again and again missing Week 1, missing Weeks 6 through 9 then coming back and destroying your lineup by playing 3 snaps in Week 11 before leaving the game and then missing Week 12. That’s a lot to overcome and while I am not in the camp of guys are snake bit, Achane is tiny and going to just naturally be more in danger of getting hurt and that’s a tough pill to take in the second round of drafts.